How Presidential Elections Affect the Housing Market
With the Presidential election coming up, it’s completely normal to wonder what’s going to happen next. You might be asking yourself if now is still a good time to buy or sell a home. We get it—big events like elections can make us feel a little uncertain about big decisions. But here’s the inside scoop: elections usually have a very small and temporary effect on the housing market, so you don’t have to hit pause on your plans just yet!
Today, we’re going to break it down and see what’s happened in past elections so you can make the best decision for you and your family. And just for fun, take a look at a video Scott and Lane put together 4 years ago discussing this very topic:
Do Home Sales Slow Down During Elections?
Yep, but just a little bit. Right before an election, like in October and November, home sales can slow down as some buyers choose to wait and see what happens. But don’t stress—it’s a short-lived dip.
Historically, home sales bounce back quickly after the election. In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show that after 9 out of the last 11 elections, home sales went up the following year. So, if you’re planning to buy or sell, you’re in good company!
Do Home Prices Drop in Election Years?
Not really. According to housing analyst Ryan Lundquist, “An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.” In simple terms, home prices tend to keep doing what they were already doing. So if prices have been climbing in your area, chances are they’ll keep moving in that direction unless something major changes in the overall market. The only real exception was during the 2008 financial crisis—definitely not a typical year! Right now, the market is more stable (although not quite 2021), so don’t worry too much about price drops just because of an election.
Do Mortgage Rates Drop During Election Years?
Good news here too! In 8 out of the last 11 election years, mortgage rates dropped slightly between July and November, according to data from Freddie Mac. This year looks like it’s on track to follow that trend, with experts predicting rates might ease a bit more through the rest of 2024. So if you’re looking to buy, this could actually work in your favor by giving you a bit more purchasing power. It’ll be the perfect storm of lower rates and less competition!
So, What’s the Bottom Line?
Presidential elections don’t usually have a huge impact on the housing market. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, puts it simply: “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.” So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling, there’s no need to put your plans on hold.
Still have questions or want to chat about your next move? Reach out to us—we’re here to help you navigate the market, no matter what’s happening in the world!
